“Canadians are already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate, from extreme heat to increased risks to communities and infrastructure. This latest global temperature forecast provides important, science-based information to help governments, decision-makers, and communities better understand what lies ahead and plan accordingly.” Said Julie Dabrusin, Minister of the Environment, Climate Change and Nature.

Based on current modelling, the global mean temperature in 2026 is predicted to fall in the range of 1.35 °C and 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels, meaning that global temperatures will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 13th consecutive year. Looking ahead, Canada’s long-term forecasts indicate that the period from 2026 to 2030 will likely be the hottest five-year period on record.

Produced by Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, the forecast is based on a made-in-Canada climate prediction system that provides early insight into expected global temperature conditions. This means that governments, industry, and communities can use this data with confidence while planning for the impacts of a warming climate.

The 2026 global mean temperature forecast predicts a range of 1.35 °C to 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels (from 1850 to 1900), with a central estimate of 1.44 °C. This will be the 13th consecutive year that global temperatures exceed 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels.

To address the drivers of rising global temperatures, the Government of Canada is taking action to reduce emissions. This includes measures outlined in Budget 2025 and the Climate Competitiveness Strategy—such as the enhanced oil and gas methane and landfill methane regulations announced last month—strengthening our industrial carbon markets and cementing Canada as a clean energy superpower. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions protects human health and reduces climate impacts while supporting economic growth. These efforts help strengthen communities, protect the environment, and support Canada’s transition to a cleaner and more competitive economy.

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Large crowds braved heavy rain for the start of the event, crossing army-made pontoon bridges across Delhi’s main river, the Yamuna, to the “World Culture Festival”, where 35,000 dancers and musicians will perform to an expected audience of millions over three days.

Modi, the star guest at the opening ceremony, sat next to organiser Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, a well known guru, on a specially built VIP stand, as hundreds of holy men chanted in harmony and women dressed in red and gold danced to drum beats on the stage below.

The festival has pitted Ravi Shankar against environmentalists, concerned about damage to the nature-rich floodplain, and the Delhi police, who said the 7-acre (3-hectare) stage – which organisers say is the world’s largest – lacked a safety certificate.

India’s top environmental court this week fined Ravi Shankar’s organisation 50 million rupees ($750,000) and questioned why authorities had allowed the festival to be held in such an environmentally sensitive area, but it did not stop the event going ahead.

Green groups say the event will destroy the biodiversity of the 1,000-acre (400-hectare) site by ripping up vegetation, flattening land and altering the river’s flow.

Ravi Shankar has rejected criticism and promised to leave the area better than he found it.

Delhi police expressed concern about whether organisers were equipped to manage such a large number of people, warning of the potential for “utter chaos”.

The Yamuna, a tributary of the Ganges and the source for much of Delhi’s water, is revered by many Hindus who bathe in it, despite high levels of industrial and human waste. ($1 = 67.0145 rupees)

(Reporting by Tommy Wilkes; Editing by Douglas Busvine and Robin Pomeroy)

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BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s carbon emissions, by far the world’s highest, may have peaked in 2014, according to a study published on Monday,  potentially putting Beijing under pressure to toughen its climate pledges.

China has promised to bring greenhouse gas emissions to a peak by “around 2030” as part of its commitments to a global pact to combat global warming, signed in Paris last year. Evidence that the country has peaked much earlier could lead to concerns that its existing targets are too easy.

The study, by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics, said that the 2030 peak was a very conservative estimate.

“It is quite possible that emissions will fall modestly from now on, implying that 2014 was the peak,” said the report, noting that recent data already showed that China’s emissions fell in 2015.

“If emissions do grow above 2014 levels … that growth trajectory is likely to be relatively flat, and a peak would still be highly likely by 2025,” the authors said.

Xie Zhenhua, China’s senior climate change envoy, said at a press conference on Monday that the country’s emissions had not peaked in 2014 and were still growing.

While total energy consumption rose 0.9 percent to 4.3 billion tonnes of standard coal in 2015, coal consumption fell 2.2 percent on a year earlier, according to Reuters calculations based on official data.

Chinese carbon experts said any fall in emissions in 2015 would be mainly due to a slowdown in China’s economy, and it was unlikely that emissions had peaked so early.

“I would like to believe that the peak will be around 2030, and if stricter policies for carbon reduction and some reforms in the way local leaders are evaluated on GDP growth, the peak will come in 2025,” said Xi Fengming, a carbon researcher with the China Academy of Sciences.

“But I do not think China has reached peak emissions in 2014,” he said.

The government said on Saturday that it would cap total energy consumption at 5 billion tonnes of standard coal by 2020, amounting to an increase of 16.3 percent from 2015.

It also said that it would cut carbon intensity – or the amount of CO2 emissions per unit of economic growth – by 18 percent over the 2016-2020 period.

The 2030 peak pledge was made in a joint declaration with the United States in late 2014. China also agreed it would make its best efforts to peak earlier.

One of the main bones of contention during the Paris climate talks was a regular five-year “stocktaking” process that would compel countries to adjust their targets in light of new economic or technological circumstances, with China arguing that any such adjustments must be voluntary.

U.S. climate change envoy, Todd Stern, said in Beijing last week that China could come under pressure to draw up tougher targets if it became clear that the existing goals were too easy.

“It will be up to the Chinese government whether they increase their target but there will obviously be a lot of international opinion looking forward to additional measures – whether it is China or anyone else,” he told reporters.

(Reporting by David Stanway; Editing by Richard Pullin and Joseph Radford)

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